2026-08-25 10:22 HKT · +2.3% today = 0.9σ (normal) — entering the trim zone
Cause — (quiet check, no driver)Trend above 200D (+16.9%)Stretch RSI3 93 · RSI14 84
HOLDING IT
WANT IN
SPIKE UP
TRIM$81–82k
The trim zone is HERE — let the staged order work
At $80.8k: the $81–82k trim zone (May high $82.2k) is 0.3–1.5% above. If the ~20–25% sell order is staged, let strength fill it; if not, stage it now — don't watch it tick through the zone unsold.
WAIT$82.2k
Don't chase into resistance
At $80.8k: no entry — up 2.3% today, RSI3 93, right under the May high. A daily close above $82.2k and its first retest is the long trigger; chasing into resistance is not.
DROP DOWN
HOLD$69.1k
Support has ratcheted up under price
At $80.8k: hold. Nearest supports are $78.6k then $76.3k. The only hard exit stays a daily close below the 200-day at $69.1k.
BUY DIP$76.3k
The entry is still the old support
At $80.8k: wait. A pullback that holds $78.6k or $76.3k while above the 200-day is the entry. Buying 1% under the trim zone has no edge.
Hard rule (invalidation): Daily close below the 200-day ($69.1k) = regime flip; all buy plans off. Base rate: After ≥2σ up-days above the 200D: 5d win 64%, avg +2.2% (n=25) — momentum usually carries; trims are for levels, not for fear of green candles.
Why this call
Tuesday-morning refresh of the standing card: BTC pushed to $80.8k, +2.3% on the day (0.9σ — still normal volatility, no cause classification needed).
The only thing that changed overnight is proximity: the $81–82k trim zone now starts 0.3% above the price, with the May-2026 high at $82,191 just +1.7% away and RSI3 at 93. For holders this is execution time for the staged plan, not decision time — the 20–25% trim sells into the zone. A decisive daily close ABOVE $82.2k would flip the script the same way SOL's $97.4 break did: trim logic off, stop ratchets to the broken level.
Up-move base rates still favour momentum (≥2σ up-days: 5d win 64%, avg +2.3%, n=25) — which is exactly why the plan trims only a quarter into strength and pre-agrees the breakout response instead of fading it.
Move+2.3% = 0.88σ (rank 289/1125 in 3y)
Regimeabove 200D ($69,143, +16.9%)
StretchRSI3 93 · RSI14 84 · −35% vs 52w high
Support$78,569 (−2.8%), then $76,255
Resistance$82,191 (+1.7%, May-2026 high = trim zone)
Daily vol2.6% — one normal day spans the whole zone
What happened after similar events
Forward returns after same-direction big moves in the same trend regime: