Invest Tools · Pulse

ETH $2,434

2026-08-24 10:08 HKT · −1.2% today = 0.3σ (normal)

Cause — (quiet check, no driver) Trend above 200D (+21.1%) Stretch RSI3 67 · RSI14 76

HOLDING IT

WANT IN

SPIKE
UP

TRIM $2,619

Next trim is the Jan-2024 high

At $2,434: no action. The next sell-into-strength level is $2,619 (Jan-2024 high, +7.6%). Below that, let the position work.

WAIT $2,416

Retest holding — buy confirmation, not hope

At $2,434: the retest of the $2,416 breakout is holding but not yet confirmed. Enter only after a daily close back above ~$2,470 off this retest — confirmation, not the intraday wobble.

DROP
DOWN

HOLD $2,416

Hold unless the retest fails

At $2,434: hold. A daily close below $2,416 means the breakout failed — cut back to core there. The hard floor stays the 200-day at $2,010.

WAIT $2,010–2,100

If the retest fails, don't catch it

At $2,434: no entry on weakness here. If $2,416 gives way the breakout thesis is dead — the next buy zone is near the 200-day ($2,010–2,100), not the first red candle.

Hard rule (invalidation): Daily close below $2,416 = failed breakout retest; regime exit is the 200-day at $2,010.
Base rate: After ≥2σ drops above the 200D: 5d win 50%, avg −0.1% (n=16) — ETH mean-reverts less reliably than BTC; levels matter more here.

Why this call

Quiet Monday check. ETH is at $2,434, −1.2% — a 0.3σ move, normal volatility, no driver worth searching for.

The setup that matters is still the breakout retest: ETH broke the April high at $2,416 last week and has spent three days sitting on it. So far the level holds — today's dip stopped 0.7% above it. This is the textbook decision point: a confirmed hold turns $2,416 into support and re-opens the long side toward $2,619; a daily close below it flags a failed breakout.

ETH's own base rates argue for waiting on the level rather than anticipating: after ≥2σ drops in this regime the 5-day win rate is exactly 50% (n=16), noticeably weaker than BTC's mean-reversion. At 21% above the 200-day, there is room to be patient in both directions.

Move−1.2% = 0.27σ (rank 666/1125 in 3y)

Regimeabove 200D ($2,010, +21.1%)

StretchRSI3 67 · RSI14 76 · −49% vs 52w high

Support$2,416 (−0.7%, April high = breakout retest)

Resistance$2,619 (+7.6%, Jan-2024 high)

Daily vol4.4% — today is noise

What happened after similar events

Forward returns after same-direction big moves in the same trend regime:

Event size	n	+1d win/avg	+5d win/avg	+20d win/avg
≥2.0σ	16	38% / -0.9%	50% / -0.1%	38% / +0.7%
≥2.5σ	9	44% / +0.6%	67% / +2.2%	33% / -1.5%

Past cards: 2026-08-24-SOL · 2026-08-24-HYPE · 2026-08-24-ETH · 2026-08-24-BTC · 2026-08-23-SOL · 2026-08-23-HYPE · 2026-08-23-ETH · 2026-08-23-BTC · 2026-08-22-SOL · 2026-08-22-HYPE