Invest Tools · Pulse

ETH $2,513

2026-08-24 20:59 HKT · +2.0% today = 0.5σ (normal)

Cause — (quiet check, no driver) Trend above 200D (+25.0%) Stretch RSI3 82 · RSI14 80

HOLDING IT

WANT IN

SPIKE
UP

TRIM $2,619

Ride it to the Jan-2024 high

At $2,513: no action. The sell-into-strength level stays $2,619 (Jan-2024 high), now only +4.2% away — stage the ~20–25% trim there.

BUY close ≥ $2,470

Retest held — the confirmation is today's close

At $2,513: the $2,416 retest held and bounced 4%. A daily close at or above ~$2,470 is the confirmation the plan called for — enter on that confirmed close, not mid-bar, and know $2,619 sits 4% overhead.

DROP
DOWN

HOLD $2,416

$2,416 is now the line under the trade

At $2,513: hold. A daily close back below $2,416 means the breakout failed — cut back to core there. Hard floor stays the 200-day at $2,011.

WAIT $2,416

Missed the retest? Wait for the next one

At $2,513: if you'd rather not buy the confirmed close, the next entry is a later pullback that holds $2,416. If that fails, stand aside toward the 200-day ($2,010–2,100).

Hard rule (invalidation): Daily close back below $2,416 = failed breakout, thesis dead; regime exit is the 200-day at $2,011.
Base rate: After ≥2σ up-days above the 200D: 5d win 58%, avg +3.6% (n=19) — post-breakout strength tends to extend before it stalls.

Why this call

Evening update: the decision point from this morning resolved. ETH bounced off the $2,416 breakout retest to $2,513, +2.0% on the day (0.5σ — normal volatility, no driver needed).

Three days of sitting on the April high and the level held — today's move puts price above the ~$2,470 confirmation line intraday. If the daily close holds there, the breakout is confirmed: $2,416 becomes the floor of the move and the Jan-2024 high at $2,619 (+4.2%) becomes both the target and the trim zone. Mid-bar strength is not a close; the plan pays for that discipline precisely on days like this.

Base rates side with continuation: after ≥2σ up-days in this regime ETH's 5-day forward return wins 58% averaging +3.6% (n=19). The risk worth respecting is the failed-breakout close back under $2,416, not the strength itself.

Move+2.0% = 0.45σ (rank 489/1125 in 3y)

Regimeabove 200D ($2,011, +25.0%)

StretchRSI3 82 · RSI14 80 · −47% vs 52w high

Support$2,416 (−3.9%, held the retest)

Resistance$2,619 (+4.2%, Jan-2024 high = trim zone)

Daily vol4.4% — target is one normal day away

What happened after similar events

Forward returns after same-direction big moves in the same trend regime:

Event size	n	+1d win/avg	+5d win/avg	+20d win/avg
≥2.0σ	19	37% / -0.2%	58% / +3.6%	47% / +4.0%
≥2.5σ	11	55% / +0.9%	64% / +1.5%	45% / +2.2%

Past cards: 2026-08-24-SOL · 2026-08-24-HYPE · 2026-08-24-ETH · 2026-08-24-BTC · 2026-08-23-SOL · 2026-08-23-HYPE · 2026-08-23-ETH · 2026-08-23-BTC · 2026-08-22-SOL · 2026-08-22-HYPE