Cause — (quiet check, no driver)Trend above 200D (+15.6%)Stretch RSI3 75 · RSI14 79
HOLDING IT
WANT IN
SPIKE UP
TRIM$96–97
Second tap of the range top = trim
At $93.9: no action. Friday rejected the $96–97 range top; the second tap there is the sell-into-strength — trim ~20–25% into it.
WAIT$97.4
Don't buy 2% under resistance
At $93.9: no entry with resistance at $96.2 only 2.4% away and RSI14 at 79. A daily close above $97.4 opens the range; until then buy weakness, not strength.
DROP DOWN
HOLD$89.5
Rejection pullback, not a breakdown
At $93.9: hold. Drifting off the range-top rejection is normal; support is $89.5. Exit only on a daily close below the 200-day at $81.2.
BUY DIP$89.5
The dip-buy zone is $89.5
At $93.9: wait. $89.5 support (−4.7%) is the entry zone while above the 200-day — a 2σ down day (~−6%) lands right on it. Half tranche there.
Hard rule (invalidation): Daily close below the 200-day ($81.2) = regime flip; no buys below it. Base rate: After ≥2σ drops above the 200D: 5d win 53%, avg −0.2% (n=15) — the edge shows up at 20d (+2.3%), not in the bounce.
Why this call
Quiet Monday check. SOL is at $93.9, −1.6% — 0.5σ, normal volatility for an asset that swings 3% a day.
Friday's rejection at the $96–97 range top is still the controlling feature: price is drifting back into the range, RSI3 has cooled from the spike. The map is simple — $96–97 is where holders trim, $89.5 is where dip buyers act, and the 200-day at $81.2 is the regime line.
Base rates after real ≥2σ drops in this regime show no bounce edge (5d win 53%, avg −0.2%, n=15) but a decent 20-day drift (+2.3%). Translation: buying the level and holding beats buying the panic — and today isn't a panic anyway.
Move−1.6% = 0.53σ (rank 719/1125 in 3y)
Regimeabove 200D ($81.23, +15.6%)
StretchRSI3 75 · RSI14 79 · −62% vs 52w high
Support$89.47 (−4.7%)
Resistance$96.19 (+2.4%, range top rejected Fri)
Daily vol3.0% — today is noise
What happened after similar events
Forward returns after same-direction big moves in the same trend regime: