HOLD
$89.5
Not trimming? Then know your line
At $96.3: if you choose not to trim, hold with $89.5 as support and exit the regime only on a daily close below the 200-day at $81.2. Choosing neither trim nor line is not a plan.
Evening update, and this one is live: SOL is back at $96.25 — the second tap of the $96–97 range top that rejected price on Friday. The day's move itself is nothing (+0.9%, 0.3σ); the location is everything. This is a level-triggered call, not a volatility event.
The standing plan since Friday has been explicit: holders trim ~20–25% into $96–97, and a daily close above $97.4 flips the script — trim cancelled, stop ratcheted to $97.4, range top becomes range floor. With RSI3 at 99 into resistance, the risk/reward of waiting for the extra 1% is poor; the plan sells strength here.
Honest caveat from the base rates: after real ≥2σ up-days in this regime SOL's 5-day forward return wins 57% at +3.8% (n=21), so momentum through $97.4 is a live possibility — which is exactly why the trim is partial and the breakout has a pre-agreed response instead of regret.
Forward returns after same-direction big moves in the same trend regime:
| Event size | n | +1d win/avg | +5d win/avg | +20d win/avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥2.0σ | 21 | 67% / +0.4% | 57% / +3.8% | 57% / +6.1% |
| ≥2.5σ | 12 | 75% / +1.1% | 67% / +4.6% | 75% / +6.9% |
Past cards: 2026-08-24-SOL · 2026-08-24-HYPE · 2026-08-24-ETH · 2026-08-24-BTC · 2026-08-23-SOL · 2026-08-23-HYPE · 2026-08-23-ETH · 2026-08-23-BTC · 2026-08-22-SOL · 2026-08-22-HYPE